Florida's still swinging

No, the title is not a reference to, for lack of a better term, "geographical anatomy." However, based on the two latest polls on the presidential race, America's Wang™ still could go either way.

Both presidential campaigns can point to new polls that show them ahead in Florida.

SurveyUSA: McCain 49%, Obama 47%

Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 45%

The interesting part, as one commenter at the link points out, is the internals on the SUSA poll. They have Obama leading among independents, 47-44, and each has 80% of his own party, yet Huggy Bear has a two-point lead overall? Maybe a little GOP bias in the sample?

Even weirder, SUSA scored it 75-22 for Obama among African-Americans. I'm not saying race has to be a determining factor here, but realistically, how can Huggy be getting 22% among African-Americans? Unless, say, they talked to a disproportionate number of African-American Republicans ...

Bearing out my suspicions, if you drill down even further, you'll see that the overall sample was 44% GOP, 40% Democratic, and 16% independents, in a state where Democrats hold a modest edge of about 41% to 37% over the Republicans in total voter registrations, with 22% registered as independents or with some other affiliation*. Now, granted, many of those Democrats may support Huggy, since historically central and northern Floridians often register as Democrats but vote Republican for president ... but we just don't know that from this poll. We're talking about very small counties anyway, for the most part, so the effect on the poll would -- should -- be minimal.

So we're left with two conclusions: first, take SUSA, or any poll showing Huggy with the lead in Florida, with a grain of salt; and second, we can't let up now. Keep working, keep pushing, keep hustling, right on through November 4. True, Obama doesn't have to win Florida to take the White House ... but it'd be much nicer if we could turn Florida blue.

---

* These numbers are based on my own calculations, estimated from 2007 voter registration numbers plus the influx of over 430,000 new registered voters in 2008, some 58% of whom are Democrats. Putting the two together and rounding the numbers just a bit, I estimated:

4,350,000 Democrat
3,900,000 Republican
2,400,000 Independent/Other

for an approximate total of 10,650,000 registered voters in Florida. Again, just an estimate ... but any discrepancy probably would be in the actual tallies rather than in the percentages derived therefrom.

Going out on a limb

This isn't a reason to stop working hard, but I'm going to make a completely objective, non-politically-motivated prediction here: Barack Obama will be elected president in November.

Statistically speaking, it's pretty much in the bag:

With just over three weeks until Election Day, the two presidential nominees appear to be on opposite trajectories, with Sen. Barack Obama gaining momentum and Sen. John McCain stalled or losing ground on a range of issues and personal traits, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Overall, Obama is leading 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and for the first time in the general-election campaign, voters gave the Democrat a clear edge on tax policy and providing strong leadership.

[...]

While there are few signs of progress for McCain in the poll, recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable, although turning around a late double-digit deficit would be unprecedented in the modern era. At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points.

Well, that's good news. Yeah, I know (and I said before), it's not over ... but I'd rather be ten points ahead than ten points behind. It's nice to see the country waking up and smelling the coffee.

Just call McCain "Toast," because he's getting burned so bad

There's new poll goodness here in America's Wang™, and it's even better when you consider the source.

According to the latest poll by, of all groups, the rightward-leaning Rasmussen Reports, Barack Obama leads Huggy Bear in Florida by a 52% to 45% margin. This marks a more-than-complete turnaround from just two weeks ago, when Huggy led the Rasmussen Florida poll by five percentage points. This is a direct result, I believe, of my joblessness ...

No, seriously, this is a huge development when you consider the importance of Florida's 27 electoral votes. Florida is the largest state truly in play (three states have more electoral votes: California and New York are solidly in Obama's column, while it would take a miracle for Huggy not to win Texas), and it's been a strategic focus of both campaigns since the very beginning -- indeed, it was a popular destination for all of the primary candidates, and not just because they wanted to go to the beach.

Add in an astonishing poll result out of Virginia, where Obama now leads by as much as 12 points (according to Suffolk University), and continuing gains in Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio,

As Electoral-vote.com points out today, "the [debate] tonight will be absolutely critical and is probably McCain's last big chance to turn things around." I think that's definitely the case. Huggy needs a huge win tonight -- without it, he's ... well, he's toast.

This is not a scientific poll

Indeed. However, it is an accurate one.

You can cast your own vote over at the website for CNN's Larry King Live.

Poll dancing: Obama leads in south Florida

No, I'm not terribly surprised to see that a new Zogby poll shows Barack Obama with a comfortable 46-30 lead over Huggy Bear in the three largest south Florida counties (Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade). What is somewhat surprising, though, is the degree to which Obama leads among Hispanic voters, a trend that could spell trouble for Huggy if it continues.

Obama was perceived as being behind in Florida because he did not campaign in the state for nine months and lost the Democratic primary to Hillary Clinton. But two statewide polls released last week showed him with a narrow edge over McCain. The Zogby poll was conducted June 18-20, just as Obama's first television ads in South Florida went on the air.

South Florida traditionally votes Democratic, but Obama's lead in Miami-Dade is wider than the narrow margin of victory posted by 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry.

Among Hispanics in the three counties, Obama leads McCain 40 to 35 percent. Until the tide started to turn against the Republican Party in 2006, Hispanics in Florida have long favored the GOP.

"That shows the depth of anger that Hispanics are feeling toward the Republican Party," Zogby said. "If Democrats walk away with 65 percent of the Hispanic vote in Florida, that will be almost insurmountable for the Republican party."

Obama's lead in the poll suggests he is winning over supporters of Hillary Clinton, who won handily in South Florida and in the Hispanic community in the Jan. 29 presidential primary. McCain won the Hispanic vote in the Republican primary.

"When Hispanic voters have an opportunity to focus on McCain's record on issues like education, economic development, free trade and immigration, the candidate who best represents the Hispanic community is McCain," said Ana Carbonell, a Miami member of the McCain campaign's steering committee. "The campaign plans an aggressive effort to reach out to Hispanic voters, especially in Florida."

But Democrats point to signs that the Hispanic community's political stripes are changing. A protest Saturday outside Obama's speech in Miami drew only about three dozen people, mostly older Cuban-Americans. The group attacked Obama for surrounding himself with two high-level advisors who helped send Cuban rafter Elián González back to his father in Cuba.

When the custody battle raged eight years ago, Cuban-Americans rose up in droves. "We understand the Elián González issue is something that passed, and that it was not Obama's fault," said Ramón Saúl Sánchez of the Miami-based Democracy Movement, who tussled with the federal agents who seized Elián from his relatives' home in Little Havana. "People are giving more weight to other issues, like lifting the travel ban."

Carbonell said younger Cuban-Americans may not have attended the protest but were buzzing about Obama's advisors on Spanish-language blogs. Of the Cuban-Americans in the Herald poll, a majority support McCain.

Obama has called for lifting the Bush administration's restrictions on Cuban-Americans who want to visit family on the island. McCain has criticized Obama for wanting to ease sanctions and for his willingness to meet with the Cuban government in the hope of sparking democratic reform.

"A lot of Cuban Americans are very disappointed with President Bush," Sanchez said. "If McCain says he's going to follow the same policies as Bush, that says a lot."

Yes, Huggy still leads among Cuban-Americans, but that lead (1) is shrinking and (2) is nowhere near the support that Drunky McStagger enjoyed from that contingent in the two most recent elections. And actually, Ms. Carbonell, Huggy Bear's record is pretty much the exact opposite of what the majority of Hispanics apparently want: for example, free travel to and from Cuba, more jobs, a stronger economy, and no stupid xenophobic restrictions on immigration. You couldn't be more wrong, Ms. Carbonell.

As I was telling friends in Brooklyn on Saturday night, I believe that Sen. Obama has to win south Florida pretty overwhelmingly in order to carry Florida. It's certainly possible, but it's going to take a lot of work by the candidate and the campaign. Sen. Obama can't presume that the good work he did a month ago is going to hold up in the long term; he has to come back here and come back here often. He's a far better campaigner than Huggy Bear (then again, a bag of soiled diapers is a better campaigner than Huggy Bear), and so the more face time he can get in America's Glans™, the better for his chances of carrying America's Wang™. It's also going to help him win over the erstwhile Clinton supporters, some of whom are still vocal about their opposition to Sen. Obama in light of how they feel their favored candidate was treated.

The bottom line is this: a win for Huggy Bear means a third Bush term. And it doesn't matter if you're Hispanic, Caucasian, African-American, Asian-American, or any other hyphenated American you like -- that would be a disaster for the country.

We're not a swing state anymore

The other day we learned, without too much surprise, that Hillary Clinton would beat Huggy Bear in Florida, while Barack Obama would fall short, according to one poll.

Now we have another poll, albeit this time from the egregiously right-wing Rasmussen Reports, saying the same thing.

The new poll, which was conducted Thursday and has a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows McCain with a 53-to-38 percent lead over Obama in Florida. If Clinton is the Democratic nominee, the poll shows her edging McCain 45 percent to 44 percent in the state.

[...]

The new poll shows slippage for Obama in Florida. A month ago, Rasmussen showed McCain leading Obama by only four points in a hypothetical presidential matchup and topping Clinton by seven points.

I think it's time to dispel the notion that Florida is a swing state. I've been as convinced as anyone that Florida was going to tip the scales one way or the other in November yet again -- or that it could, anyway -- but it's becoming increasingly clear to me that there are just too many ... um ... social conservatives (I was going to use a more pejorative term, but decided against it) in the rural parts of Florida who will base their vote on skin color before any other factor.

And as it seems more and more likely that Sen. Obama will be the Democratic nominee, it seems that Florida will be red this fall. We'll have to count on other, more sensible (and presumably less racist) states like Ohio and Virginia to turn the tide.

But, in the meantime, let's stop talking about Florida as a swing state. It's not ... at least not anymore.

UPDATE (5:06 pm 4/16/08): I should clarify one point: I'm not accusing Clinton supporters of racism. Indeed, I have not endorsed either candidate; I like both of them fine, but I also have problems with both of them.

I just believe that the difference in the poll numbers between Clinton and Obama when put against Huggy Bear one-on-one shows the influence of racism that is evident in certain parts of Florida. Otherwise, I would expect Florida more closely to resemble other southern states electorally, where Obama is doing or has done better.

I'm less concerned about the poll numbers of Clinton vs. Obama than I am about the numbers with either one of them vs. Huggy Bear. I just don't see any plausible reason other than race why anyone would support Clinton if she's in the race, but would vote for Huggy if she's not.

My point ultimately is just that we're a red state.

Clinton stronger than Obama in Florida

This news got past me during my recent travels, but a Quinnipiac University poll released last week provides some numbers that, to me, are troubling.

According to the poll, Hillary Clinton would defeat Huggy Bear in a one-on-one race in Florida, but Huggy would beat Barack Obama one-on-one. As critical as Florida is -- as it always is these days -- in a presidential election, it puts Democrats in a bind. Obama is the stronger candidate nationally, according to polls (and delegate counts), yet clearly Clinton at this time is the better choice if Dems want to win Florida.

The Quinnipiac University poll ... shows Clinton edging presumptive Republican nominee John McCain by a 44-to-42 percent margin in Florida. The same poll shows McCain defeating Obama, 46 percent to 37 percent, in the Sunshine State.

The poll of 1,136 Florida voters was conducted March 24-31 and has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.

The poll shows divisions among Democrats that, at least for now, threaten to spill over into the November general election.

In a Clinton-McCain matchup, 78 percent of Florida Democrats said they would vote for Clinton, with 9 percent supporting McCain, 5 percent saying they wouldn't vote and 6 percent saying they weren't sure.

In an Obama-McCain matchup, only 61 percent of Florida Democrats said they would vote for Obama, with 20 percent supporting McCain. Nine percent of Democrats said they would sit out the race and 7 percent were undecided.

Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown said race is a factor in Florida.

"The difference between Clinton and Obama in Florida is the white vote," Brown said in a Quinnipiac news release. "She gets 38 percent to 50 percent for McCain, but Obama loses to the Arizona senator 54 - 27 among white voters. If Obama does get the nomination, how he fares with whites will be crucial to his chances."

Yep, racism remains tragically alive and well in America's Wang™, and I'm afraid it won't be much different in November. Eleven percent of Florida's Democrats (based on the poll) would switch to the Republican candidate if Obama is the nominee, and another four percent would stay home. Handing Florida's electoral votes to Huggy Bear will be a major blow to Democratic chances in the general election ... yet I remain unconvinced that Sen. Clinton can run an effective campaign nationally.

As I've pointed out before, a distressingly large portion of Florida's registered Democrats are of the "Dixiecrat" ilk who tend to vote Republican in presidential elections. And of those, a lot of them live in the panhandle and down the center of the state, in more rural areas. Not to say that rural residents are more racist, but I'll just suggest you do like I did last week and drive between Palm Beach County and Tallahassee and count the number of vehicles displaying Confederate flags ...

There's a long way to go before November, I know. But I hope this poll, if accurate, serves as a wake-up call to the Obama campaign. If, as appears likely, he's going to be the Democratic nominee in November, his people had better figure out a way to win Florida, because no matter how you slice it, America's Wang™ is going to play a critical role again in selecting our next president.

Pass the salt ...

... 'cause I'm gonna need more than just a grain of it after reading the latest Rasmussen poll of Florida voters.

According to that noted right-wing pollster, Scott Rasmussen, an evangelical Christian and anti-gay advocate, Huggy Bear leads both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Florida in hypothetical one-on-one matchups. Not only that, but the poll claims to find that Huggy has a larger margin over Obama (53-37) than over Clinton (49-43), the exact opposite of what reputable polls are finding in other states.

However, the poll contains hints that suggest the controversy over Florida's convention delegates may be hurting Obama. Most notably, just 55% of Sunshine State Democrats say they would vote for Obama over McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) say they would vote for McCain. These results are especially striking given that Obama leads McCain among unaffiliated voters in the state.

Florida was stripped of its seats at the Democratic National Convention as a penalty for holding its Primary before February 5. The candidates did not campaign in the state and Hillary Clinton handily won the popular vote. Now, Clinton is calling for the Florida delegates to be seated while Obama disagrees.

The survey also shows that McCain leads Obama by twenty-six points among women. Women are Hillary Clinton's strongest demographic. McCain leads Obama by twenty-five points among Senior Citizens, another demographic group that is generally supportive of Clinton.

In the end, if Obama is the Democratic nominee, it is likely that most of the Democrats currently unhappy with him will come home and vote for their party rather than John McCain. However, it is always problematic for a candidate to begin a campaign without the solid support of voters from within his own party.

You mean like the way Huggy is getting hammered from the Right, Scott? Oh, no, of course -- you're just trying to damage Obama's reputation. Got it.

Even if you take that 31% of Florida Dems voting for Huggy Bear at face value, that's not out of the realm of possibility, given the way registered Democrats in north Florida abandon their party in presidential races (pun, sadly, intended ... *cough*).

Like polls from Fox News, for example, Rasmussen polls consistently trend against Democrats -- the more popular the Democrat, the more likely the poll will be skewed against him or her. However, having said that, I'm not altogether surprised to find Clinton doing better than Obama in Florida, based on the age gap that I experienced firsthand on SuperDuperMegaGeriatric Tuesday. Still, the idea that Huggy Bear is crushing both of them in America's Wang™ is a little hard to believe.

Bottom line on this poll: consider the source ... and remember that we have a long way to go.

Today's Daily Schadenfreude: Rudy Giuliani

Ah, sweet schadenfreude. It's been a while since we've laughed at the misfortune of yet another woebegone Republican, but Rudy Giuliani deserves our derision for his abysmal showing in Iowa. He came in behind, among others, John McCain, Ron Paul, and a bag of soiled diapers.

Still, what makes this schadenfreude-worthy? After all, we shouldn't put too much stock into Rudy's pathetic results in Iowa, since he long ago focused almost exclusively on Florida as his chance to make a splash, right? Well, by the time January 29 rolls around, it's going to be too little, too late. Even the polls seem to bear this out:

Mitt Romney’s strategy for winning the Republican nomination was to win the early states and build momentum. Rudy Giuliani’s plan was to accept defeats in the early states and come back strong on January 29 in Florida and in many large states on February 5.

The latest Rasmussen Reports polling in the state of Florida suggests that Giuliani might need to work on a "Plan B." Mike Huckabee now leads in the Sunshine State Primary with 27% of the vote. He is trailed closely by Romney at 23% and Giuliani at 19%. Fred Thompson is at 9% in the poll, John McCain at 6%, and Ron Paul at 4%. Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter each attract 1% and 8% are undecided.

That was on December 14, more than three weeks ago, and I hardly think Huckabee's win yesterday in Iowa does anything other than give him even more of a boost here in America's Wang™. Granted, other polls still show Rudy with a lead, but it's a narrow, dwindling lead.

Mr. 9/11, in short, is toast. And the Republicans likely will get exactly what they deserve, namely, a corrupt, incompetent, fundamentalist preacher as their nominee. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of misfits and scalawags.

So, congratulations, Rudy -- I hate to say I told you so, but, well, I told you so. And so today's Blast Off! Daily Schadenfreude is for you!

Here comes Huckabee

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

Mike Huckabee has surged into a virtual tie with front-runner Rudy Giuliani in the national 2008 Republican presidential race two weeks before the first contest, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas whose campaign has caught fire in recent weeks, wiped out an 18-point deficit in one month to pull within one point of Giuliani, 23 percent to 22 percent.

I'm not saying that Rudy Giuliani is a better candidate, but I'm just pointing out that all my talk about Huckabee the last few months is beginning to come true. I've said all along that the batshit crazy fundies still run the GOP, and neither Giuliani nor Mitt Romney is palatable to them. Huckabee's got the aw-shucks demeanor and pulpit creds to boot, so naturally the Religious Right will push hard to get him the nomination.

Granted, this is the old "mythical national primary," but I think it accurately reflects the fawning press coverage Huckabee has received lately. I've even seen my first Huckabee bumper stickers around America's Wang™ in recent days, if that's any indication of (please excuse the expression) a surge. And of course the media hasn't even begun to dismantle Huckabee yet ... which leads me to wonder if they ever will.

But just remember, gang: wolf in sheep's clothing. If you think the Bush theocracy is heinous, just wait till you get a taste of the Huckabee theocracy.

Poll smoking

The latest CBS News/New York Times presidential campaign poll out of Iowa is very interesting indeed.

On the Democratic side, it's a statistical dead heat among Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. But on the Republican side, while Romney leads, Huckabee is only six percentage points behind, with Giuliani another six points back.

Here are the numbers (PDF):

Democrats

Biden 4
Clinton 25
Dodd 1
Edwards 23
Gravel
Kucinich 1
Obama 22
Richardson 12
Undecided (vol) 11
DK/NA 1

Republicans

Giuliani 15
Huckabee 21
Hunter 2
McCain 4
Paul 4
Romney 27
Tancredo 3
Thompson 9
Someone else /None (Vol.) 1
Undecided (Vol.) 10
DK/NA 2

While Iowa isn't going to decide either nomination by itself, it's safe to say it will play a significant role. And so the media's masturbatory fantasy of Clinton vs. Giuliani may not be quite the fait accompli the pundits might have you believe.

No more red states

This is nice (click image for larger version):


Even the old standbys of Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming have fallen to or below 50%. Drunky McStagger is tanking hard, right before our very eyes. How lovely.

(h/t attaturk)

Poll dancing

The South Florida Sun-Sentinel has a poll up on their front page (you may have to scroll down to vote):

Momentum is building in Congress to force President Bush to begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq. What do you think should happen?

• We should begin withdrawing now.


• We should stay until we achieve our goals.


• We should wait until the current "surge" campaign has ended, then decide.

As I write this, with 2797 votes tallied, by better than a two to one margin (66.9%), respondents are saying withdraw now. This compares with 14.6% who are demented Bush fluffers say "stay until we achieve our goals" and 18.5% who are moronic brownshirt fucks say let the surge go on ...

You know what to do ...

UPDATE (5:49 pm 7/18/07): There's a different poll up now, but you ought to vote in it anyway ...

Should Fort Lauderdale Mayor Jim Naugle resign for making repeated comments that gay and lesbian residents have found offensive?

• Yes.


• No.


• I'm not sure.

This one's too close for comfort right now. 52.4% say yes, 46.1% no, 1.5% not sure (3898 total responses).

Facts still have a liberal bias

Here are some numbers you won't hear on Faux News (poll conducted July 3-5):

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of President George W. Bush commuting the 30-month prison sentence of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby while leaving intact Mr. Libby's conviction for perjury and obstruction of justice in the CIA leak case?

Approve 31%
Disapprove 64%
Undecided 5%


Question:
Do you favor or oppose a complete presidential pardon for Mr. Libby?

Favor 11%
Oppose 84%
Undecided 5%


Question:
Do you favor or oppose the US House of Representatives beginning impeachment proceedings against President George W. Bush?

Favor 45%
Oppose 46%
Undecided 9%


Question:
Do you favor or oppose the US House of Representatives beginning impeachment proceedings against Vice President Dick Cheney?

Favor 54%
Oppose 40%
Undecided 6%

Even taking into account that the poll, by ARG, is slightly skewed towards Democrats (38% of the sample, versus 29% Republicans and 33% independents), the country generally backs impeachment (or, in the case of Bush, at least wouldn't oppose it), and the torches and pitchforks might come out if Libby is pardoned fully.

With this kind of evidence, I have to ask: why doesn't Congress get it?!?!

UPDATE (3:45 pm 7/6/07): Ana Marie Cox delves farther into this (no pun intended), comparing the numbers with 1998. Let's just say impeachment wasn't quite as popular before it actually happened to Clinton.

Davis still trails in latest polling

Although Jim Davis has managed to close the gap a bit, Charlie Crist still leads the Florida gubernatorial race by 11 points, according to the latest poll released yesterday.

It's a healthy lead, but slightly narrower than the 15-point margin Crist enjoyed in the poll last month.

Since that poll, Davis has started running TV ads so many voters have gotten more acquainted with him.

Still, Crist ads outnumber the Davis spots 3-1 on NBC 6 [in Miami] and most television stations across the state.

When I met Rep. Davis a few weeks ago, I learned that there was going to be more of a television presence for him in the weeks leading up to the election. There simply hasn't been enough money, though, and the wealthier Crist campaign has been bombarding the airwaves with ads.

Unfortunately, while I truly believe Davis would win the election on the issues, this race, like so many before it, may well come down to two co-dependent things: money and name recognition.

Take a moment to help Jim Davis close the gap even further.