Poll dancing: Obama leads in south Florida

No, I'm not terribly surprised to see that a new Zogby poll shows Barack Obama with a comfortable 46-30 lead over Huggy Bear in the three largest south Florida counties (Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade). What is somewhat surprising, though, is the degree to which Obama leads among Hispanic voters, a trend that could spell trouble for Huggy if it continues.

Obama was perceived as being behind in Florida because he did not campaign in the state for nine months and lost the Democratic primary to Hillary Clinton. But two statewide polls released last week showed him with a narrow edge over McCain. The Zogby poll was conducted June 18-20, just as Obama's first television ads in South Florida went on the air.

South Florida traditionally votes Democratic, but Obama's lead in Miami-Dade is wider than the narrow margin of victory posted by 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry.

Among Hispanics in the three counties, Obama leads McCain 40 to 35 percent. Until the tide started to turn against the Republican Party in 2006, Hispanics in Florida have long favored the GOP.

"That shows the depth of anger that Hispanics are feeling toward the Republican Party," Zogby said. "If Democrats walk away with 65 percent of the Hispanic vote in Florida, that will be almost insurmountable for the Republican party."

Obama's lead in the poll suggests he is winning over supporters of Hillary Clinton, who won handily in South Florida and in the Hispanic community in the Jan. 29 presidential primary. McCain won the Hispanic vote in the Republican primary.

"When Hispanic voters have an opportunity to focus on McCain's record on issues like education, economic development, free trade and immigration, the candidate who best represents the Hispanic community is McCain," said Ana Carbonell, a Miami member of the McCain campaign's steering committee. "The campaign plans an aggressive effort to reach out to Hispanic voters, especially in Florida."

But Democrats point to signs that the Hispanic community's political stripes are changing. A protest Saturday outside Obama's speech in Miami drew only about three dozen people, mostly older Cuban-Americans. The group attacked Obama for surrounding himself with two high-level advisors who helped send Cuban rafter Elián González back to his father in Cuba.

When the custody battle raged eight years ago, Cuban-Americans rose up in droves. "We understand the Elián González issue is something that passed, and that it was not Obama's fault," said Ramón Saúl Sánchez of the Miami-based Democracy Movement, who tussled with the federal agents who seized Elián from his relatives' home in Little Havana. "People are giving more weight to other issues, like lifting the travel ban."

Carbonell said younger Cuban-Americans may not have attended the protest but were buzzing about Obama's advisors on Spanish-language blogs. Of the Cuban-Americans in the Herald poll, a majority support McCain.

Obama has called for lifting the Bush administration's restrictions on Cuban-Americans who want to visit family on the island. McCain has criticized Obama for wanting to ease sanctions and for his willingness to meet with the Cuban government in the hope of sparking democratic reform.

"A lot of Cuban Americans are very disappointed with President Bush," Sanchez said. "If McCain says he's going to follow the same policies as Bush, that says a lot."

Yes, Huggy still leads among Cuban-Americans, but that lead (1) is shrinking and (2) is nowhere near the support that Drunky McStagger enjoyed from that contingent in the two most recent elections. And actually, Ms. Carbonell, Huggy Bear's record is pretty much the exact opposite of what the majority of Hispanics apparently want: for example, free travel to and from Cuba, more jobs, a stronger economy, and no stupid xenophobic restrictions on immigration. You couldn't be more wrong, Ms. Carbonell.

As I was telling friends in Brooklyn on Saturday night, I believe that Sen. Obama has to win south Florida pretty overwhelmingly in order to carry Florida. It's certainly possible, but it's going to take a lot of work by the candidate and the campaign. Sen. Obama can't presume that the good work he did a month ago is going to hold up in the long term; he has to come back here and come back here often. He's a far better campaigner than Huggy Bear (then again, a bag of soiled diapers is a better campaigner than Huggy Bear), and so the more face time he can get in America's Glans™, the better for his chances of carrying America's Wang™. It's also going to help him win over the erstwhile Clinton supporters, some of whom are still vocal about their opposition to Sen. Obama in light of how they feel their favored candidate was treated.

The bottom line is this: a win for Huggy Bear means a third Bush term. And it doesn't matter if you're Hispanic, Caucasian, African-American, Asian-American, or any other hyphenated American you like -- that would be a disaster for the country.