We're not a swing state anymore

The other day we learned, without too much surprise, that Hillary Clinton would beat Huggy Bear in Florida, while Barack Obama would fall short, according to one poll.

Now we have another poll, albeit this time from the egregiously right-wing Rasmussen Reports, saying the same thing.

The new poll, which was conducted Thursday and has a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows McCain with a 53-to-38 percent lead over Obama in Florida. If Clinton is the Democratic nominee, the poll shows her edging McCain 45 percent to 44 percent in the state.

[...]

The new poll shows slippage for Obama in Florida. A month ago, Rasmussen showed McCain leading Obama by only four points in a hypothetical presidential matchup and topping Clinton by seven points.

I think it's time to dispel the notion that Florida is a swing state. I've been as convinced as anyone that Florida was going to tip the scales one way or the other in November yet again -- or that it could, anyway -- but it's becoming increasingly clear to me that there are just too many ... um ... social conservatives (I was going to use a more pejorative term, but decided against it) in the rural parts of Florida who will base their vote on skin color before any other factor.

And as it seems more and more likely that Sen. Obama will be the Democratic nominee, it seems that Florida will be red this fall. We'll have to count on other, more sensible (and presumably less racist) states like Ohio and Virginia to turn the tide.

But, in the meantime, let's stop talking about Florida as a swing state. It's not ... at least not anymore.

UPDATE (5:06 pm 4/16/08): I should clarify one point: I'm not accusing Clinton supporters of racism. Indeed, I have not endorsed either candidate; I like both of them fine, but I also have problems with both of them.

I just believe that the difference in the poll numbers between Clinton and Obama when put against Huggy Bear one-on-one shows the influence of racism that is evident in certain parts of Florida. Otherwise, I would expect Florida more closely to resemble other southern states electorally, where Obama is doing or has done better.

I'm less concerned about the poll numbers of Clinton vs. Obama than I am about the numbers with either one of them vs. Huggy Bear. I just don't see any plausible reason other than race why anyone would support Clinton if she's in the race, but would vote for Huggy if she's not.

My point ultimately is just that we're a red state.