Just call McCain "Toast," because he's getting burned so bad

There's new poll goodness here in America's Wang™, and it's even better when you consider the source.

According to the latest poll by, of all groups, the rightward-leaning Rasmussen Reports, Barack Obama leads Huggy Bear in Florida by a 52% to 45% margin. This marks a more-than-complete turnaround from just two weeks ago, when Huggy led the Rasmussen Florida poll by five percentage points. This is a direct result, I believe, of my joblessness ...

No, seriously, this is a huge development when you consider the importance of Florida's 27 electoral votes. Florida is the largest state truly in play (three states have more electoral votes: California and New York are solidly in Obama's column, while it would take a miracle for Huggy not to win Texas), and it's been a strategic focus of both campaigns since the very beginning -- indeed, it was a popular destination for all of the primary candidates, and not just because they wanted to go to the beach.

Add in an astonishing poll result out of Virginia, where Obama now leads by as much as 12 points (according to Suffolk University), and continuing gains in Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio,

As Electoral-vote.com points out today, "the [debate] tonight will be absolutely critical and is probably McCain's last big chance to turn things around." I think that's definitely the case. Huggy needs a huge win tonight -- without it, he's ... well, he's toast.

Pass the salt ...

... 'cause I'm gonna need more than just a grain of it after reading the latest Rasmussen poll of Florida voters.

According to that noted right-wing pollster, Scott Rasmussen, an evangelical Christian and anti-gay advocate, Huggy Bear leads both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Florida in hypothetical one-on-one matchups. Not only that, but the poll claims to find that Huggy has a larger margin over Obama (53-37) than over Clinton (49-43), the exact opposite of what reputable polls are finding in other states.

However, the poll contains hints that suggest the controversy over Florida's convention delegates may be hurting Obama. Most notably, just 55% of Sunshine State Democrats say they would vote for Obama over McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) say they would vote for McCain. These results are especially striking given that Obama leads McCain among unaffiliated voters in the state.

Florida was stripped of its seats at the Democratic National Convention as a penalty for holding its Primary before February 5. The candidates did not campaign in the state and Hillary Clinton handily won the popular vote. Now, Clinton is calling for the Florida delegates to be seated while Obama disagrees.

The survey also shows that McCain leads Obama by twenty-six points among women. Women are Hillary Clinton's strongest demographic. McCain leads Obama by twenty-five points among Senior Citizens, another demographic group that is generally supportive of Clinton.

In the end, if Obama is the Democratic nominee, it is likely that most of the Democrats currently unhappy with him will come home and vote for their party rather than John McCain. However, it is always problematic for a candidate to begin a campaign without the solid support of voters from within his own party.

You mean like the way Huggy is getting hammered from the Right, Scott? Oh, no, of course -- you're just trying to damage Obama's reputation. Got it.

Even if you take that 31% of Florida Dems voting for Huggy Bear at face value, that's not out of the realm of possibility, given the way registered Democrats in north Florida abandon their party in presidential races (pun, sadly, intended ... *cough*).

Like polls from Fox News, for example, Rasmussen polls consistently trend against Democrats -- the more popular the Democrat, the more likely the poll will be skewed against him or her. However, having said that, I'm not altogether surprised to find Clinton doing better than Obama in Florida, based on the age gap that I experienced firsthand on SuperDuperMegaGeriatric Tuesday. Still, the idea that Huggy Bear is crushing both of them in America's Wang™ is a little hard to believe.

Bottom line on this poll: consider the source ... and remember that we have a long way to go.