Pass the salt ...
... 'cause I'm gonna need more than just a grain of it after reading the latest Rasmussen poll of Florida voters.
According to that noted right-wing pollster, Scott Rasmussen, an evangelical Christian and anti-gay advocate, Huggy Bear leads both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Florida in hypothetical one-on-one matchups. Not only that, but the poll claims to find that Huggy has a larger margin over Obama (53-37) than over Clinton (49-43), the exact opposite of what reputable polls are finding in other states.
However, the poll contains hints that suggest the controversy over Florida's convention delegates may be hurting Obama. Most notably, just 55% of Sunshine State Democrats say they would vote for Obama over McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) say they would vote for McCain. These results are especially striking given that Obama leads McCain among unaffiliated voters in the state.You mean like the way Huggy is getting hammered from the Right, Scott? Oh, no, of course -- you're just trying to damage Obama's reputation. Got it.
Florida was stripped of its seats at the Democratic National Convention as a penalty for holding its Primary before February 5. The candidates did not campaign in the state and Hillary Clinton handily won the popular vote. Now, Clinton is calling for the Florida delegates to be seated while Obama disagrees.
The survey also shows that McCain leads Obama by twenty-six points among women. Women are Hillary Clinton's strongest demographic. McCain leads Obama by twenty-five points among Senior Citizens, another demographic group that is generally supportive of Clinton.
In the end, if Obama is the Democratic nominee, it is likely that most of the Democrats currently unhappy with him will come home and vote for their party rather than John McCain. However, it is always problematic for a candidate to begin a campaign without the solid support of voters from within his own party.
Even if you take that 31% of Florida Dems voting for Huggy Bear at face value, that's not out of the realm of possibility, given the way registered Democrats in north Florida abandon their party in presidential races (pun, sadly, intended ... *cough*).
Like polls from Fox News, for example, Rasmussen polls consistently trend against Democrats -- the more popular the Democrat, the more likely the poll will be skewed against him or her. However, having said that, I'm not altogether surprised to find Clinton doing better than Obama in Florida, based on the age gap that I experienced firsthand on SuperDuperMegaGeriatric Tuesday. Still, the idea that Huggy Bear is crushing both of them in America's Wang™ is a little hard to believe.
Bottom line on this poll: consider the source ... and remember that we have a long way to go.
Labels: 2008, Barack Obama, Florida, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, polls, Rasmussen Reports, Scott Rasmussen



















