Psychotic wingnut voting score: Limbaugh 1, Coulter 0

As I've mentioned here before, I have the misfortune of residing in the same county as those notorious wingnut morons, Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter. For all the political pontificating and prevaricating they do, surely they both took great pains to make sure they cast their votes earlier this month, right?

Well, not exactly.

I’m told by elections officials that Limbaugh, who’s looking at four years of killer ratings going after the soon-to-be prez Barack Obama, cast his ballot at St. Edward’s Catholic Church.

Ironically, the place once was the Kennedy family’s favored church.

Coulter?

For someone who makes millions from the political process, she may want to rethink this: She didn’t perform her civic duty.

As a matter of fact, I’m told she’s off the voter rolls in Palm Beach, where she has declared her residency.

You may recall that the Coultergeist managed to get into a bit of hot water in 2006 when she cast her ballot in the wrong precinct. Now I guess she's trying to avoid similar problems by, well, just not voting at all.

Therefore, any criticism she might make of any elected official, or any appointments made thereby, for the duration of his or her term is null and void. Kind of like her integrity ...

Today's Daily Schadenfreude: Virgil Goode

Great news ... well, make that Goode news out of Virginia: bigoted congressman Virgil Goode (R-19th Century) has been voted out of office.

Virgil H. Goode Jr. announced this afternoon that he will seek a recount in the 5th District Congressional race.

Tom Perriello beat Goode, the incumbent, by 745 votes. This morning, the State Board of Elections certified those results.

By that slim margin, Goode is entitled to request a recount at taxpayer expense.

He has 10 calendar days from today to file a recount petition.

You may remember a couple of years ago when Goode spoke out about the election of Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.), the first Muslim member of Congress. Here's an excerpt from a letter Goode sent to concerned constituents:

When I raise my hand to take the oath on Swearing In Day, I will have the Bible in my other hand. I do not subscribe to using the Koran in any way. The Muslim Representative from Minnesota was elected by the voters of that district and if American citizens don’t wake up and adopt the Virgil Goode position on immigration there will likely be many more Muslims elected to office and demanding the use of the Koran. We need to stop illegal immigration totally and reduce legal immigration and end the diversity visas policy pushed hard by President Clinton and allowing many persons from the Middle East to come to this country. I fear that in the next century we will have many more Muslims in the United States if we do not adopt the strict immigration policies that I believe are necessary to preserve the values and beliefs traditional to the United States of America and to prevent our resources from being swamped.

It's troubling to know that people still think that way in 2008, but it's downright astonishing to see a member of Congress not only think that way, but talk about it openly. At long last, sir, have you no shame?

Well, fortunately, we needn't care about Goode anymore. Yes, there apparently will be a recount, but it appears that the people of Virginia's 5th congressional district have decided that no Goode can come from them. Or something like that.

But, hey, Virgil, as you await the recount that will just prolong your political demise, at least you can console yourself with this fact: today's Blast Off! Daily Schadenfreude is for you!

Write on!

My BRF* D.P. in Clearwater sent me this nugget the other day. There were some interesting write-in votes for president in Jacksonville this year.

Some voters expecting to vote for Barack Obama or John McCain two weeks ago were surprised to see 11 other names on the ballot. But 736 voters in Duval County weren't happy with any of the choices and wrote in 191 other names.

[...]

George W. Bush got two votes to serve a third term.

Others getting multiple votes were Jesus, God, Donald Duck, Mickey Mouse, Tim Tebow and that perennial favorite, "None of the above."

Perhaps surprisingly, Joe the Plumber and John Doe only got one vote each, tying Bill Clinton, Theodore Roosevelt, Bill O'Riely, Tiger Woods, Bobby Bowden, Tommy Chong, Willie Nelson and Homer Simpson.

It figures that a fan of Bill O'Reilly wouldn't know how to spell his name ...

But my favorite vote of all was "They Both Suck '08." At least that voter is up front about his or her feelings.

---

* Best Republican Friend.

Witnesses to history

This is it.

All the hard work, all the talking, all the campaigning, everything the candidates have done and their staffs have done and their volunteers have done and all the conversations we've had with family and friends and strangers -- it all comes down to this one day.

Tomorrow.

Election Day.

Sure, millions already have voted, but many more millions will vote on this one day. And we're going to see history. As I write this, barring an upset of colossal, historic proportions (yes, I know all about "Dewey Defeats Truman"), tomorrow we will elect the first African-American president in our nation's history. And what's more, Democrats likely will secure huge majorities in each house of Congress, perhaps by margins unseen (at least in the Senate) for thirty years.

The work isn't over. Tomorrow is the most critically important day, and if you're reading this, I hope you'll consider what you can do to help. Volunteer first thing in the morning at your local campaign office. Be a driver to help people get to the polls. Call your friends and encourage them to get to their local precinct. Help them find their precinct if necessary. Of course, if you haven't voted, what are you waiting for?!?

I'll be a poll watcher -- a "Voting Rights Attorney" -- tomorrow, spending all day at a precinct in Palm Beach County to help ensure that everyone who has a right to vote does. We're prepared to face challenges by Republicans, poorly-trained poll workers, broken machines, long lines, you name it ... and we're all over the county, the state and, indeed, the nation. (As a result, blogging may be highly limited or even impossible until late tomorrow night -- not that you'd be reading this sucky blog tomorrow anyway.)

At any rate, if you're out at the polls and you see a Voting Rights Attorney or poll watcher or whatever your area might call it, tell them "thanks." Like you, we all want to make sure that every vote counts.

Blast Off! Radio today at 4:00 pm EST: Special Election Eve edition!

Well, all the campaigning, speechifying, attack ads, traveling, scheming, and contemplating have come down to this: tomorrow is Election Day. And even though millions of Americans already have cast their votes, the Big Day really is tomorrow. In a mere 36 hours, we should know who our next president will be (along with the results of many important down-ticket races, too).

Hard to believe, isn't it? The Election That Wouldn't End finally is ending ... but not without one more snarkfest on Blast Off! Radio. What, you were expecting a tea party, maybe?

On today's show, we'll look at some final poll numbers from Florida and around the country, and I'll make some predictions on how things ultimately will shake out electorally. Plus we'll point and laugh at some incredibly stupid people, we'll talk about voter suppression efforts by the GOP and others and what their impact on the election might be, we'll have a look back at early voting in Florida and a look ahead at what to expect tomorrow (I'll be a Voting Rights Attorney -- a poll watcher -- and will do my best to cover things firsthand from the precinct where I'll be assigned), and I'll review a very exciting week in south Florida politics, including my own turn as a TV pundit.

It's really easy to be a part of Blast Off! Radio. You can call, chat, or email ... but most of all, I hope you'll listen. Here's how:

TIME: 4:00 pm Eastern TODAY

Click here to listen

Call in number: (646) 716-7543

E-mail: blastoffradio-at-gmail-dot-com

It all comes down to tomorrow. Will Barack Obama fulfill the dreams and hopes of so many, or can Huggy Bear pull off an historic upset? Is Sarah Palin destined to be vice president or relegated to the dusty corners of history? And can the Democrats put together a filibuster-proof Senate or will Joe Lieberman remain a thorn in our collective sides? Join me as we talk about all of that and more, this afternoon on Blast Off! Radio ...

(cross-posted at FPC Blog)

Doing the math

Yes, I know anything can happen and that polls are fallible. But let's be realistic.

According to Electoral-Vote.com today, which tracks polling state by state, the dark blue or "strong Dem" states have a total of 264 electoral votes. That encompasses states (and D.C.) where Obama leads in the polls by ten percentage points or more; it's extraordinarily unlikely, almost completely impossible, that Huggy Bear can turn that around in four days' time. And included in that total is Pennsylvania, which Huggy claims is a must-win ... but down by 11 points in the most recent polling, it doesn't look good for him.

Anyway, the threshold for winning is 270 EVs. This means that Obama needs to add only six more EVs to his virtually-guaranteed total in order to win. He currently enjoys a seven-point lead in each of these states: Nevada (5 EVs, not quite enough), Ohio (20), and Virginia (13); and a six-point lead in Colorado (9). In short, take the virtually-guaranteed total, add just one of Ohio, Virginia, or Colorado, and it's over.

Sure, we want the landslide, and frankly, I think we'll get it. And of course, we want big wins on the Democratic side in Congress, too. But in terms of doubt over the outcome of the presidential election -- well, mathematically, assuming the polls are credible*, there isn't any doubt.

---

* Naturally, because polls aren't credible, we have to keep working hard for every vote.

A British view of Florida politics

As I mentioned the other day on Twitter, I will be appearing on national television in the UK next week, talking from Miami about blogs and their impact on the American election this year. I am trying to get details and, as soon as I can, I'll share them here. Not sure whether the broadcast will be live, but if so, it'll be 3:00 pm Monday afternoon Eastern time (9:00 7:00 pm in the UK) -- all I know at the moment is that time, which is when I'm supposed to be in the studio in Miami Beach, and the fact that it's going to air on Sky News in the UK. (Sorry I can't be more specific than that right now -- if I knew more, I'd tell you!) Hopefully you'll be able to see it here in the USA and elsewhere ...

Anyway, while doing research for the interview, I have found it interesting -- instructive, even -- to see how the British view our election. I think the British system is curious at best, but I have no doubt they feel the same about ours (Electoral College? Are you kidding me?). Anyway, even better, Sky has a correspondent in Florida -- Miami, specifically -- who is examining the impact of race and heritage on the presidential election here.

Racism is notoriously widespread in regions away from the traditionally Republican state's major cities, such as the Panhandle in the north.

A seventh-grade school teacher there was recently suspended for writing on a blackboard that Obama's "Change" slogan stood for "Come Help A N***** Get Elected".

How many times do I have to say it? Republicans. Aren't. Funny. Many of them, however, are moronic brownshirt fucks.

Anyway, the article continues:

Miguel Saabedra is president of the Vigilia Mambisa organisation for Cuban exiles which staged a street demonstration in the area of the capital known as Little Havana to show support for John McCain.

He and others at the event repeatedly linked Mr Obama with fundamentalist Islam - a charge that has been levelled against him since the primaries, despite the fact he has been a practising Christian for decades - and accused him of being a closet Communist.

"Obama wants to talk to Castro, he wants to talk to (Venezualan president Hugo) Chavez, he wants to talk to Iran," he told Sky News. "These people don't want to talk to us!

"It's not because he is black, if Condoleezza Rice was running for president, or Colin Powell, that would be good. I support black people. I have good friends who are black."

Yes! It's the classic "I have friends who are black" explanation! You can always count on a racist to bring that one up. Nice going, Mr. Saabedra -- you get a free month's subscription to Stormfront for that talking point!

Another demonstrator outside the Versailles restaurant, a focal point for the Cuban American community, waved a placard at passing motorists with a crudely-drawn picture of Mr Obama wearing what looked like a beard, robes and turban below the word "Evil".

Many passing cars tooted their horns in approval and several slowed down to shout encouragement - although one or two drove past shouting abuse and pro-Obama slogans.

For many Cuban Americans like Laura Vianello, the Democratic party still have not been forgiven for President John F Kennedy's failure to properly back up the Cuban expats who tried to topple the Castro regime in the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961.

So that's what this is all about? Something that happened nearly half a century ago?! No, the world hasn't changed at all in that time, no, sirree ...

Jeebus. I mean, I empathize with the Cuban-American community, really I do, but holy fuck, get over it already! In many cases, you're generations removed from the Bay of Pigs, and you're following a drastically altered Republican Party today -- indeed, I question whether or not Barry Goldwater, the de facto leader of the GOP back in Kennedy's day, would even recognize his party's current incarnation.

[Vianello] lost three uncles in the invasion, a memorial to which stands prominently in the street in Little Havana.

"Most Cubans here in Miami are Republican by tradition. You could put the Devil up there as a candidate and we would vote for him," she said.

Well, you pretty much did that in 2000 and 2004, Ms. Vianello, and sure enough, you voted for him. And you're going to do it again this year. Heckuva job, Laura. But enjoy President Obama ... check back with me in 2012 and let's see which party has been more responsive to Cuban and Cuban-American interests.

My money's on the Democrats. But then, I'm just a dirty fucking hippie ...

UPDATE (11:10 am 10/27/08): As commenter pseudonymous in NC reminds me, I went the wrong way on the clock adjustment in the UK when I calculated it above. They are on Daylight Time now, which means their clocks went back over the weekend, while we've got a week to go here in the States. So 3pm here actually is 7pm in the UK. Thanks, pseud.

A progressive guide to Florida's proposed constitutional amendments

As you head to the polls in Florida (which you already may have done; I'm planning to vote today), you'll face the usual list of races for local, state, and national office, and you probably already know about most of them. But in Florida, as you may know, we have a very weird constitutional amendment process, which I frankly think is a joke.

Florida's constitution doesn't operate like the U.S. Constitution. Amendments to the Florida Constitution are not appended to the document, but instead they result in actual changes -- deletions or additions -- to the original document. As such, our state constitution, the fifth, has been amended 109 times since its ratification in 1968. One hundred and nine amendments in forty years, compared to the U.S. constitution's 27 amendments in 220 years. Heckuva job, Florida.

At least it's marginally harder now to amend the Florida Constitution, thanks to ... yep, a constitutional amendment passed in 2006 raising the electoral majority needed to approve an amendment from 50% to 60%. But, still, it's a goofy system, and it leads to all manner of idiocy -- as we're seeing this year with, for example, Amendment 2, the Hate Amendment, which has no business being in the Constitution. But, I digress ...

Commenter sdf (stu) asked the other day if I knew of a good progressive guide to the six amendments on Florida's ballot this year and, coincidentally, I'd been considering writing just such a guide -- although I don't know whether it's going to be good or not. Still, it's a start, and maybe it'll help you as you head to the polls. So here we go:

---

A Progressive Guide to Florida's Proposed Constitutional Amendments, 2008

Links are to PDFs of the full official amendment language as proposed by the Legislature;
the italicized paragraphs are what you will see on your ballot

1. Amendment 1 -- Relating to Property Rights/Ineligible Aliens

Proposing an amendment to the State Constitution to delete provisions authorizing the Legislature to regulate or prohibit the ownership, inheritance, disposition, and possession of real property by aliens ineligible for citizenship.

Analysis: This is a no-brainer. Basically, as Frank Cerabino explains in today's Palm Beach Post, Florida is the last state that preserves constitutional language regarding "aliens ineligible for citizenship," which at the time it was written around a hundred years ago specifically meant the Chinese who, thanks to early 2oth Century xenophobia, were for a time ineligible for citizenship.

The federal Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 prohibits racial restrictions on citizenship and property ownership, so in actual fact there are no "aliens ineligible for citizenship." Amendment 1 seeks merely to bring Florida law into compliance -- finally -- with that 1952 federal law, and with every other state's law as well. A "yes" vote means you want to delete that obsolete language ... so, you know, duh.

Recommended vote: YES on 1

2. Amendment 2 -- Florida Marriage Protection Amendment

This amendment protects marriage as the legal union of only one man and one woman as husband and wife and provides that no other legal union that is treated as marriage or the substantial equivalent thereof shall be valid or recognized.

Analysis: Ugh. Gah. Blecch. Here it is, folks: the right-wing nutjobs' attempt not just to legislate morality, but to put it in the state constitution. Of course, they'll stop at nothing to enshrine their hate in the Constitution, and they're apparently breaking the law in order to get it done (surprise!!) ... but that's outside the scope of this guide.

So, as to the amendment itself: it would proscribe not only the proverbial "gay marriage," which already is illegal in Florida, but it would prevent any kind of civil union -- homosexual or heterosexual -- or other non-marriage legal bond between consenting adults. It would prevent such innocuous things as seniors who have lived together for years from visiting each other in the hospital. It would prevent domestic partners -- yes, even one man and one woman -- from receiving health and other benefits even if their employers offered them -- which also would be illegal under this amendment.

Bottom line (as if you need to hear it from me): this is a heinous, hateful amendment, it's redundant, and it doesn't belong in our Constitution. It's another no-brainer: it needs to FAIL -- big time.

Recommended vote: NO on 2

3. Amendment 3 -- Changes and Improvements Not Affecting the Assessed Value of Residential Real Property

Authorizes the Legislature, by general law, to prohibit consideration of changes or improvements to residential real property which increase resistance to wind damage and installation of renewable energy source devices as factors in assessing the property's value for ad valorem taxation purposes. Effective upon adoption, repeals the existing renewable energy source device exemption no longer in effect.

Analysis: This is a complicated way to say something relatively simple. The amendment would provide property owners with a tax incentive -- or, to be completely accurate, it would prohibit a tax penalty -- for making improvements that enhance the hurricane readiness of their home or that utilize renewable energy sources. If this amendment passes, the Legislature can't consider such improvements as an increase in the home's value for taxation purposes. Again, a no-brainer. (Here's some additional information.)

Recommended vote: YES on 3

4. Amendment 4 -- Property Tax Exemption of Perpetually Conserved Land; Classification and Assessment of Land Used for Conservation

Requires Legislature to provide a property tax exemption for real property encumbered by perpetual conservation easements or other perpetual conservation protections, defined by general law. Requires Legislature to provide for classification and assessment of land used for conservation purposes, and not perpetually encumbered, solely on the basis of character or use. Subjects assessment benefit to conditions, limitations, and reasonable definitions established by general law. Applies to property taxes beginning in 2010.

Analysis: This amendment would provide a property tax exemption on all land permanently designated for conservation. It's a good way to encourage conservation and give owners an incentive not to develop land unnecessarily, and it's good for the environment, too. I give it two thumbs up.

Recommended vote: YES on 4

(note: there is no Amendment 5 nor an Amendment 7)

5. Amendment 6 -- Assessment of Working Waterfront Property Based Upon Current Use

Provides for assessment based upon use of land used predominantly for commercial fishing purposes; land used for vessel launches into waters that are navigable and accessible to the public; marinas and drystacks that are open to the public; and water-dependent marine manufacturing facilities, commercial fishing facilities, and marine vessel construction and repair facilities and their support activities, subject to conditions, limitations, and reasonable definitions specified by general law.

Analysis: Another property tax-related amendment, this one would prevent waterfront property from being taxed unfairly because, say, it's ripe for future development. In other words, the value of waterfront property would be based on how it's being used today, not on what its potential for development as waterfront condos or hotels or whatever might be. It's good for small businesses in that it removes the risk of tax "penalties" just because they happen to operate on "desirable" property along the water.

Recommended vote: YES on 6

6. Amendment 8 -- Local Option Community Funding

Proposing an amendment to the State Constitution to require that the Legislature authorize counties to levy a local option sales tax to supplement community college funding; requiring voter approval to levy the tax; providing that approved taxes will sunset after 5 years and may be reauthorized by the voters.

Analysis: Yesterday at the Obama rally in Miami, some folks were urging a "yes" vote on Amendment 8, handing out flyers that stated, "Amendment 8 will not cost you one penny. It will simply provide a process for community colleges to get local public support." Well, strictly speaking, it's true that the amendment itself won't cost you a penny ... but it would allow counties on an individual to charge you a few pennies or so to support their respective community colleges.

Still, this is a good thing. All levels of education in Florida are suffering from the sluggish economy (not to mention the after-effects of detestable education policy under the Jeb! Bush administration), but perhaps none more so than the community colleges, which form the backbone of higher education in this state as well as a huge boost to employers and businesses throughout Florida. Amendment 8 may result in higher taxes for you in the long run, depending on what each county decides to do, but in this case, that's a good thing no matter which side of the aisle you're on.

Recommended vote: YES on 8

So, to summarize, I recommend:

YES on 1, 3, 4, 6, and 8
NO on 2

If I've misstated anything or you disagree for whatever reason, let me hear it in comments. I hope this helps you when you vote -- after all, despite the example of Sarah Palin and others, an informed citizenry is the best hope for all of society.

Palm Beach County voter registrations skyrocket

Well, perhaps "skyrocket" is too strong a word ... but it's pretty impressive, I think, that there are over 15,000 new registered voters in Palm Beach County since the August primaries. Yeah, it's a little less than a two-percent increase, but hey, we're talking about two months' time here.

When the tally was all-but-completed early today, 45.8 percent were registered as Democrats, 29.7 percent as Republicans and 24.3 percent as other.

While no party can declare victory, the total number now registered is impressive: 825,078 up from the 809,650 who were eligible to vote in the August primary.

"It's pretty big," Assistant County Administrator Brad Merriman said, adding that he didn't know how that compared to prior voter registration spikes that traditionally accompany presidential elections.

The percentages for each party didn't change appreciably -- Palm Beach County historically is a Democratic stronghold -- but it's still nice to see people actually interested in voting.

Now let's see which party does a better job of GOTV (Get Out the Vote). I'll give you three guesses, and the first two don't count ...

Florida's still swinging

No, the title is not a reference to, for lack of a better term, "geographical anatomy." However, based on the two latest polls on the presidential race, America's Wang™ still could go either way.

Both presidential campaigns can point to new polls that show them ahead in Florida.

SurveyUSA: McCain 49%, Obama 47%

Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 45%

The interesting part, as one commenter at the link points out, is the internals on the SUSA poll. They have Obama leading among independents, 47-44, and each has 80% of his own party, yet Huggy Bear has a two-point lead overall? Maybe a little GOP bias in the sample?

Even weirder, SUSA scored it 75-22 for Obama among African-Americans. I'm not saying race has to be a determining factor here, but realistically, how can Huggy be getting 22% among African-Americans? Unless, say, they talked to a disproportionate number of African-American Republicans ...

Bearing out my suspicions, if you drill down even further, you'll see that the overall sample was 44% GOP, 40% Democratic, and 16% independents, in a state where Democrats hold a modest edge of about 41% to 37% over the Republicans in total voter registrations, with 22% registered as independents or with some other affiliation*. Now, granted, many of those Democrats may support Huggy, since historically central and northern Floridians often register as Democrats but vote Republican for president ... but we just don't know that from this poll. We're talking about very small counties anyway, for the most part, so the effect on the poll would -- should -- be minimal.

So we're left with two conclusions: first, take SUSA, or any poll showing Huggy with the lead in Florida, with a grain of salt; and second, we can't let up now. Keep working, keep pushing, keep hustling, right on through November 4. True, Obama doesn't have to win Florida to take the White House ... but it'd be much nicer if we could turn Florida blue.

---

* These numbers are based on my own calculations, estimated from 2007 voter registration numbers plus the influx of over 430,000 new registered voters in 2008, some 58% of whom are Democrats. Putting the two together and rounding the numbers just a bit, I estimated:

4,350,000 Democrat
3,900,000 Republican
2,400,000 Independent/Other

for an approximate total of 10,650,000 registered voters in Florida. Again, just an estimate ... but any discrepancy probably would be in the actual tallies rather than in the percentages derived therefrom.

McCain's in trouble in Florida

Is Huggy Bear going to give up on America's Wang™ like he did Michigan?

Hard to say, but apparently Florida's governor, one of Huggy's most fervent supporters during the primary season, is giving up on him.

Even Gov. Charlie Crist, who helped deliver Florida for McCain during the primary, said he will be spending more time minding the state's weak economy than campaigning for the Arizona senator in the final weeks before Election Day.

"When I have time to help, I'll try to do that," Crist said last week, after he flew around the state with McCain running mate Sarah Palin. Saturday, he skipped a McCain football rally and instead went to Disney World.

Once considered a potential running mate, Crist had pledged to do all he could for McCain and spent several days this summer campaigning for the Republican nominee in and outside Florida. He faults the tough economic times for McCain's difficult time in Florida, where he trails rival Barack Obama by about 5 percentage points in the polls.

Hey, that reminds me: what's new with Charlie and his wedding? I mean, we haven't heard much about his engagement and pending nuptials lately ... at least not since he was passed over for the running-mate slot ...

Going out on a limb

This isn't a reason to stop working hard, but I'm going to make a completely objective, non-politically-motivated prediction here: Barack Obama will be elected president in November.

Statistically speaking, it's pretty much in the bag:

With just over three weeks until Election Day, the two presidential nominees appear to be on opposite trajectories, with Sen. Barack Obama gaining momentum and Sen. John McCain stalled or losing ground on a range of issues and personal traits, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Overall, Obama is leading 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and for the first time in the general-election campaign, voters gave the Democrat a clear edge on tax policy and providing strong leadership.

[...]

While there are few signs of progress for McCain in the poll, recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable, although turning around a late double-digit deficit would be unprecedented in the modern era. At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points.

Well, that's good news. Yeah, I know (and I said before), it's not over ... but I'd rather be ten points ahead than ten points behind. It's nice to see the country waking up and smelling the coffee.

Just call McCain "Toast," because he's getting burned so bad

There's new poll goodness here in America's Wang™, and it's even better when you consider the source.

According to the latest poll by, of all groups, the rightward-leaning Rasmussen Reports, Barack Obama leads Huggy Bear in Florida by a 52% to 45% margin. This marks a more-than-complete turnaround from just two weeks ago, when Huggy led the Rasmussen Florida poll by five percentage points. This is a direct result, I believe, of my joblessness ...

No, seriously, this is a huge development when you consider the importance of Florida's 27 electoral votes. Florida is the largest state truly in play (three states have more electoral votes: California and New York are solidly in Obama's column, while it would take a miracle for Huggy not to win Texas), and it's been a strategic focus of both campaigns since the very beginning -- indeed, it was a popular destination for all of the primary candidates, and not just because they wanted to go to the beach.

Add in an astonishing poll result out of Virginia, where Obama now leads by as much as 12 points (according to Suffolk University), and continuing gains in Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio,

As Electoral-vote.com points out today, "the [debate] tonight will be absolutely critical and is probably McCain's last big chance to turn things around." I think that's definitely the case. Huggy needs a huge win tonight -- without it, he's ... well, he's toast.

Hey, Florida!! Last day to register to vote is TODAY!

Just a friendly reminder ... if you're a Florida resident, today's the last day to register to vote in order to be eligible to vote in the November 4 general election.

So, don't fuck this up ... make sure you're registered and, if not, do it! The future of the country -- quite literally -- depends on YOU.

You can go to VoteForChange.com and handle everything right from there. Go. Now.






What are you waiting for? GO ALREADY!

Why Obama can win Florida

The new polls showing Barack Obama in the lead in Florida notwithstanding, there is more proof -- more viable, long-range proof -- demonstrating that Obama has an excellent chance of winning Florida's 27 crucial electoral votes next month.

The Palm Beach Post today published a study of new voter registration statistics in Florida, and the news is very good for Democrats. Of the 430,000 new voters in the state, Democratic numbers increased twice as much as Republicans. Moreover, the new voters skew more culturally and ethnically diverse and younger than before.

According to figures from the Florida Division of Elections:

• Of all newly registered voters since Jan. 29, 58 percent are Democrats.

• Republicans account for about 24 percent of new voters, while 18 percent have registered in a third party or as independents.

• The rush of new voters in the past seven months has flipped the registration lead from Republican to Democrat in Pinellas and Orange counties, two swing counties on opposite ends of the Interstate 4 corridor, the biggest battleground in the state.

The Post analysis of the data shows:

• The number of black voters between 35 and 49 years old increased 13 percent in seven months in Florida, while the number of white voters of the same age remained about the same.

• For every woman who registers Republican, 2.3 females are signing up as Democrats.

• The average age among registered voters in the state's largest county, Miami-Dade, dropped by almost six months since Jan. 29.

"The data echoes what we've heard from the Obama campaign, that their emphasis would be on registering voters and increasing the electorate," said Harold Stanley, a Southern Methodist University political science professor. "But these are groups of voters who normally aren't so enthusiastic about participating, particularly those under 30."

Naturally, the Republicans pooh-pooh those statistics, suggesting that "getting back to discussing Mr. Obama's aggressively liberal record and how he will be too risky for America," according to McCain adviser Greg Stimple, will be the way to go for this election. It's funny -- they must be living in an alternate universe if they think Obama is liberal. Granted, he's more liberal than Huggy Bear, but most normal people are ...

Anyway, the point is that there are literally hundreds of thousands of new voters in a key swing state, and the vast majority of them are going to vote for Obama. Not only will that have major implications for the presidential race, the down-ticket races are going to be affected as well.

For once, the news isn't good for Huggy ...

Today's Daily Schadenfreude: the Florida Republican Party

My friend Virgotex points me to a very interesting article in today's St. Petersburg Times. Apparently the GOP in Florida is a wee bit nervous about their candidate's free-fall in the polls here and nationally ... nervous enough to hold a super-secret meeting that was, well, not so secret after all.

With some grass roots organizers complaining about coordination problems with the campaign, Republican Party chairman Jim Greer gathered top officials at the state headquarters in Tallahassee on Tuesday afternoon. He swore the group to secrecy.

When asked about it by the St. Petersburg Times, Greer confirmed the meeting. He largely declined to discuss what was said, but sought to play down any strife.

Over the course of an hour, described by some as tense, Greer offered a forceful assessment of where McCain stands in Florida and what needs to be done to win in a battleground state that could decide the election.

"I have a responsibility to make sure things are done right, and we win these campaigns," Greer said. "I'm sure everyone in the room understands that I take that responsibility very seriously."

One of the concerns has been the relationship between grass roots volunteers across the state and far fewer paid campaign staffers. Complaints range from not getting yard signs quickly enough to knowing who will speak at events and overall manpower coordination.

"The biggest challenge is communication," said state Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff, R-Fort Lauderdale, who is involved in the campaign but was not at the meeting. She said the Broward County effort is running smoothly but that her overall impression is that state campaign officials are somewhat limited due to national directives.

This friction and fretting goes on all the time in stressful campaigns, and especially when one side's candidate has hit a rough patch, as McCain has. Buzz Jacobs, the campaign's Southeast regional director, who sat in on the meeting, denied any tension and declined comment.

Florida GOP chair Jim Greer reassures his fellow Republicans: "Remain calm! All is well!"

The wheels are coming off this campaign both nationally and in Florida, and the GOP knows it. No one wants to continue or exacerbate the economic woes that Huggy Bear's BFF Drunky McStagger has wrought on our nation, and watching Huggy himself face off in the debate against Barack Obama last Friday night showed the country just how petty, angry, and ill-prepared Huggy really is. The post-debate poll numbers dropped precipitously for the Republicans, and it's only going to get worse after tonight's show, the Sarah Palin Comedy Hour, with special guest star Joe Biden.

In addition, the Republican Party has never been good at utilizing the grassroots, especially with the advent of the Internet and the Blackberry, which Huggy himself apparently invented. So maybe some of the GOP's complaints are valid in terms of the grassroots being ignored. Remember, the Republicans' base isn't the grasroots -- it's the Wall Street fat cats and the nouveau riche in Boca Raton and the not-so-nouveau wealthy folks in Palm Beach. Frankly, it would be completely against character for the GOP to pay any attention to the "little people" in the grassroots.

Of course, the real reason for the emergency strategy meeting had nothing whatsoever to do with the grassroots. No, the real reason is that Huggy Bear is a crappy candidate who's running a crappy campaign, and every time he's on TV or in the news, it gets worse for him. On the other hand, Barack Obama is inspirational and motivational, and he really is the candidate of change -- change we so desperately need. It's laughable to see Huggy Bear's campaign claim that he will bring change to Washington -- hell, he's one of the chief reasons we need change!

So, to the Florida Republican Party, all I can do is point and laugh because you're inextricably saddled with the woeful record of your president and the ridiculous performance of your candidate. But perhaps you can find some solace in this small yet richly deserved award, because today's Blast Off! Daily Schadenfreude is for you!

Sarah Palin is coming to Boca

Look out, America's Wang™ ... Sarah America is on her way to Florida after tonight's debate.

Well, not immediately afterward ... but she'll be making a campaign swing through the state on Monday. After rallies in Republican-friendly Clearwater and Fort Myers, she'll attend a more, um, private affair in Boca Raton, which overall probably is less Republican-friendly than money-friendly:

Palin is scheduled to appear [in] Palm Beach County for the money-raising event at the Boca Raton Resort and Club. Contributors who pay $500 can attend a reception with Palin, while those who give $10,000 can attend a "VIP reception" and photo op with the candidate, and those who give $50,000 can attend a private dinner.

After rubbing elbows with the wealthy elite on Monday night, Palin will return to her base Tuesday with visits to Jacksonville and Pensacola, both of which are loaded with frothing-at-the-mouth wingnuts. Perfect for an undereducated governor of a relatively meaningless state (no offense to sentient Alaskans) ...

So the GOP plan is clear, much like it was in 2004 when "loyalty oaths" were required to attend rallies for Drunky McStagger. Keep Sarah away from potentially unfriendly crowds ... unless there's big money involved. Yeah, that's a winning strategy ... when you want to be elected by the people. Dumbasses ...

Well, I don't know whether or not I can get close enough to Sarah on Monday to ask her, say, what it's like to base your foreign policy credentials on being governor of a state that borders Canada and is near Russia. But, at least I know what to wear:


Yeah, I have no pride. What's your point?

"Country First"

I'm really beginning to have a problem with Huggy Bear's ubiquitous (and misleading) campaign slogan, "Country First." I just can't figure out why in the hell they chose that, although I suspect it had something to do with Huggy's well-known affinity for the slogan's first syllable.

Seriously, though, whether you examine the slogan from the side of Barack Obama's campaign or from Huggy's own perspective, the slogan isn't just flawed -- it's flat out wrong.

Perhaps this is what Huggy Bear thought he was approving when his campaign selected its slogan?

First off, I think the slogan is highly insulting, if not outright inflammatory. Is it intended to insinuate that Obama and his supporters don't put the country first? Is it designed to impugn Obama's patriotism? Either contention would be scurrilous and patently absurd. Indeed, I believe that by supporting and voting for Obama, I'm putting the country first by placing its interests above my own, unlike Republicans, whose every thought and deed are motivated by greed and selfishness. For them, the slogan really should be "Country First -- As Long As I've Already Got Mine."

Indeed, it's disingenuous for Huggy and Sarah Palin to claim that they put the country first when they each have built their careers on putting themselves and special interests first. No campaign in which lobbyists like Phil Gramm play a prominent if not decisive role should be permitted to bestow upon themselves the mantle of patriotism. Even if, arguably, Huggy Bear did put his country first during his Navy service and even in his early congressional career, he has lost the right to claim that he does so today, now that he has embraced (literally as well as figuratively) the failed, self-aggrandizing policies of the Bush crime syndicate.

Every time I see Huggy's campaign undeservedly hoisting the banner of "Country First," I'll be reminded of the truth. And for Republicans in 2008, the truth is painful indeed.

Florida: not ready for prime time

Well, this ought to put all of our minds at ease ... NOT.

According to Common Cause, Florida is one of several states whose myriad voting problems risk the validity of and confidence in the conduct of the November 4 election.

"It is unfortunate that even after the debacle of 2000, Florida continues to have many significant problems with its election administration system," said Ben Wilcox, Florida Common Cause president.

"We're going to have to cross our fingers that the huge turnout in the coming election doesn't overload our rickety system and end up disenfranchising voters."

Florida officials said the Common Cause report included incorrect and incomplete information and that the state is prepared to handle what is expected to be a major surge in voters.

The report examined voter registration, voter identification, voting machine allocation, poll worker recruitment and training, provisional ballots and other issues.

It said that Florida could mistakenly reject many eligible voters by requiring that prospective voters prove eligibility by providing the exact information that appears on existing state databases.

They're alluding, of course, to the law recently activated by Republican secretary of state Kurt Browning wherein even a minor typographical error in Tallahassee might disenfranchise any one of us ... especially those people who are targeted by this GOP master stroke: new voters, largely young, minority, and -- oh, yeah -- Democratic.

"Florida could mistakenly reject many eligible voters" ... don't you get it, Common Cause? That's exactly what the Republicans have in mind! The reason that "even after the debacle of 2000, Florida continues to have many significant problems with its election administration system" is because Republicans continue to game the system to make sure they do everything in their power to prevent lawfully registered voters -- Democrats -- from exercising their constitutional right. Since the Republicans can't win on the issues anymore, their only real option is disenfranchisement.

This is what passes for democracy in 2008, folks -- one party trying to fix elections in advance, any way they can. While in Michigan, the GOP in one large county outside Detroit is pushing to keep voters whose homes have foreclosed away from the polls -- thereby giving those folks a double whammy from the economic woes the Republican president's policies have caused! -- and the Obama campaign is challenging that practice, here in Florida ... crickets so far.

Republicans can't plausibly claim that this new law in Florida is intended for any purpose other than disenfranchisement of registered voters. No bleating about "accurate records" or "the need for certainty" can dress up their obvious ploy to fix the election. In other words ... you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig.

So there.

In Florida, Dems now outnumber Repubs among Hispanic voters

Looks like yet another group that has been a stalwart for the GOP has come to its senses, in the wake of the Worst President Ever. Hispanic voters in Florida now are mostly Democrats:

In 2006, Hispanics registered as Republicans in Florida outnumbered Democrats by 45,000, stoked by an overwhelming advantage in the conservative South Florida Cuban community.

But according to the latest figures from the Florida Division of Elections, Democrats now lead by almost 30,000 voters: 454,798 to 424,866. That represents a turnaround of 75,000 voters in less than two years.

In Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast, where Democrats already had an advantage over the GOP among Latino registered voters, the party has increased its margins as Nov. 4 approaches. Democrats are crowing about it.

"Hispanics are like other voters in this country, and they want change," said Mike Rios, head of the Puerto Rican Chamber of Commerce in Palm Beach County and a Democratic Party organizer.

"They want to stop the war in Iraq, bring down gas prices, create jobs and provide health insurance. And for all that, the Democrats and Barack Obama have the best platform."

Rios said the large increase in registered Democrats is due in part to new, young Latino voters, who tend to be more liberal. He also said many Puerto Ricans, some from the Northeast and others who have fled the Caribbean island's economic problems, have moved to Florida. Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens and, traditionally, Democratic voters.

Florida also has seen a sizable spike in Colombians who have become citizens, and many have registered as Democrats, Rios added.

"We've also had some Cubans register Democrat," he said in a mild dig in the ribs to his Republican rivals.

Sid Dinerstein, Palm Beach County's GOP chairman, and other Republican activists don't see those registration numbers determining the November vote.

No, of course you wouldn't, Sid. That's because you're willfully ignorant to the fact that America is sick and tired of the political games, the lies, the death and destruction, and the profiteering enabled -- and conducted -- by your party over the last eight -- well, really more like the last 15 years. If I were a Republican, I'd kill myself realize that maybe the problem is that America wants change -- and I'd look at ways to change the party platform from something that depends on allegiance to a failed, corrupt presidency and a failed, corrupt ideology into something that more closely resembles what the Republican Party claims to support: a smaller federal government and other hallmarks of traditional conservatism.

Looks like Hispanic voters in Florida, like everyone else, are discovering that real change comes not from the empty rhetoric of the Right (Huggy Bear claims to be the candidate of change? The guy who hugged Drunky McStagger and who has voted with him in increasing percentages up to the present-day 95% of the time? It's laughable, really ...) but from, well, real change -- as in electing Barack Obama president and making sure Democrats have a mandate in down-ticket races as well.

The Hispanic vote in Florida, as usual, is likely to make a significant difference at the polls in November. But this time, no matter how much Sid Dinerstein and his pals clap their hands and wish it away, that difference will benefit the Democrats.

(h/t Palm Beach Post via Twitter -- had I not been on the road yesterday, I would have posted this when I received the heads-up, but thanks, PBP!)

(cross-posted at FPC Blog)