Doing the math

Yes, I know anything can happen and that polls are fallible. But let's be realistic.

According to Electoral-Vote.com today, which tracks polling state by state, the dark blue or "strong Dem" states have a total of 264 electoral votes. That encompasses states (and D.C.) where Obama leads in the polls by ten percentage points or more; it's extraordinarily unlikely, almost completely impossible, that Huggy Bear can turn that around in four days' time. And included in that total is Pennsylvania, which Huggy claims is a must-win ... but down by 11 points in the most recent polling, it doesn't look good for him.

Anyway, the threshold for winning is 270 EVs. This means that Obama needs to add only six more EVs to his virtually-guaranteed total in order to win. He currently enjoys a seven-point lead in each of these states: Nevada (5 EVs, not quite enough), Ohio (20), and Virginia (13); and a six-point lead in Colorado (9). In short, take the virtually-guaranteed total, add just one of Ohio, Virginia, or Colorado, and it's over.

Sure, we want the landslide, and frankly, I think we'll get it. And of course, we want big wins on the Democratic side in Congress, too. But in terms of doubt over the outcome of the presidential election -- well, mathematically, assuming the polls are credible*, there isn't any doubt.

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* Naturally, because polls aren't credible, we have to keep working hard for every vote.