As noted above, I attended
a luncheon today in West Palm Beach, hosted by the local chapter of the
Democratic Professionals Council, featuring U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.). Joining me was a veritable all-star cast of local Democrats, including U.S. Rep. Ron Klein, West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel, and myriad other area officeholders and officeseekers.
Being the guest of a DPC chapter board member, I had the privilege of attending a pre-luncheon meet-and-greet, where I reintroduced myself to both Rep. Klein and Sen. Nelson and chatted with them each briefly about some of the things happening in D.C. (I gave each of them my business card, so I'm sure they'll be my BFFs soon. Ha!) I've always liked Rep. Klein, and he was gracious and personable as ever; of course, I mentioned to Sen. Nelson that
I'd met him last summer at the
Jefferson-Jackson Weekend in Hollywood, which he pretended to remember.

Lacking time to engage either Nelson or Klein in extended discussion, I went to my seat and prepared to take notes on the senator's remarks. It became clear at the outset that he was going to direct his address almost exclusively to the Florida primary fight with the DNC, as he has been one of the key players in fighting the DNC's efforts to punish Florida for moving up our primary date. After the old joke about how "an election is like a car: to move forward, you go with D, and to move backward, you go with R," Sen. Nelson began to talk about the primary controversy in earnest.
As Sen. Nelson described it, the four early states "approved" by the DNC -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina -- made a joint pledge to work together to retain their first-in-the-nation status. Because the DNC opted to adhere to that pledge and threatened to refuse to seat Florida's delegates at the convention, Sen. Nelson led a lawsuit because, as he put it, "my responsibility as the senior Democrat in Florida is to make sure our votes count." However, the judge ruled in favor of the DNC and, according to Sen. Nelson, there was not enough time to appeal the ruling. Despite this, Sen. Nelson assured us that "Florida Democrats will have the last laugh." He explained that demographically, Florida is highly representative of the country, with the exception of our higher-than-average proportion of citizens over the age of 65. Moreover, it should be the most important early state because it will be the first large state to hold a primary with all the candidates, as Michigan's Democratic primary will have only Sen. Clinton on the ballot.
Next, the senator diverged from the primary discussion to talk more generally about the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. I was disturbed immediately by Sen. Nelson's declaration that "it's a two-person race," with reference to his Senate colleagues Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. In fact, he referred to the "two-person race" several times, explaining that, in his opinion, "it's going to be very difficult for Sen. Edwards to come back from 17 [percentage] points in New Hampshire."* Sen. Nelson refused to endorse one of the candidates, however, saying that he preferred to "wait and see how the candidates treat Florida." Will they come to Florida on January 27, the day after the South Carolina primary [
ed. note -- I mistakenly
have said that the S.C. primary is Jan. 29], Nelson wondered, or adhere to the DNC's sanctions? Although he did not say so explicitly, he clearly inferred that he would be more inclined to support a candidate who demonstrates an understanding of Florida's extreme importance in the primary process. "They [the DNC] shouldn't have picked on Florida," said Sen. Nelson. "We have long memories and sensitive memories," as he alluded to the 2000 debacle as well as the problems in 2006 in the
13th District congressional election.
So what can we do, asked Sen. Nelson? TURN OUT, he emphasized. It's going to be vital that Florida Democrats go to the polls on January 29 and demonstrate that we demand that our voices be heard. Because of the candidates' pledge, said the senator, they can't campaign here, nor conduct any campaign-related activities like fundraising or advertising. However, we as citizens can do so, and Sen. Nelson encouraged us to talk to our friends and neighbors and work to help our candidate in the primary.
Sen. Nelson also described the legislation he and Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) have introduced to create a national primary system. In short, the country would be divided into six regions. In each region, the states would draw lots to determine the order of the primaries. Then, all the states that had drawn #1 in their respective regions would hold the first primaries on a single day in March. The #2 states would follow in April, and thus it would go through the #6 states in June.** At the next presidential election cycle, a rotation would begin, with the #2 states from the previous cycle moving up to #1 and so on.
The senator took a few questions from the audience; the DPC had distributed index cards at the beginning and told us to submit our questions in writing in advance. I knew this meant my question wouldn't be asked, but I submitted a card with the following question anyway:
How can you justify, as a Democrat, your votes against habeas corpus and in favor of the Bankruptcy Bill, which severely hurts Americans?Okay, it wasn't well-worded, but they didn't give me much time ... anyway, of course the softball questions were chosen.
The first question was "given your personal connection to the Democratic presidential candidates, what can you tell us about them?" Sen. Nelson said he counted all of the candidates as personal friends, citing particularly his close relationships with Joe Biden (D-Del.) and Chris Dodd (D-Conn.). He added that he was close to both "Hillary and Barack," as he called them, and that John Edwards had campaigned for him in Fort Myers (where Sen. Nelson noted that there were a lot of middle-aged women in the crowd ... "they weren't there to see me," he exclaimed). The Nelson family and the Clinton family have been friends for over 20 years, and "Barack" also campaigned for Sen. Nelson in Eatonville, a predominantly African-American community near Orlando.
All this was to say that the senator has "greatly conflicted feelings." "I can tell you," he added, "that I was so upset at the pundits, how they ran down Hillary for being emotional." Again, he said that he planned to wait and see how the candidates treated Florida, and he added, "I'm not interested in any
quid pro quo. I'm going to do what's best for the state of Florida and for America, and if I make a decision, I'll have an announcement about that."

On the Republican side, Sen. Nelson was much more direct. "I've been saying for three months now, and I've said it to his face, John McCain will be the nominee," provided he has the money to run the race. According to Sen. Nelson, McCain is the "closest thing to a leader" that the Republicans have, and he will provide the toughest challenge for the eventual Democratic candidate. "Come on!," he fairly laughed. "Give me Giuliani! Give me Romney! Give me Huckabee! McCain is the toughest match."
The senator related a story where he recently ran into NBC News bobblehead Tim Russert at a D.C. event, and Russert told him, "It's Florida, Florida, Florida." Indeed, Sen. Nelson said, Russert is right, because there is virtually no scenario where a candidate can win the presidency without winning Florida.
Next, Sen. Nelson was asked what the chances were that the Democrats could pick up a filibuster-proof majority in November. He responded that four seats definitely would turn Democratic: New Hampshire, where former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen would win; Colorado and New Mexico, each of which has a Udall brother running; and Virginia, where Mark Warner will take John Warner's old seat. He cited Oregon (with GOP incumbent Gordon Smith), Maine (Susan Collins), and Minnesota (Norm Coleman) as other possible Dem pickups, but he said that even a 57-seat majority would make it far easier to reach the 60 votes needed for ending debate.
The last word was with regard to the possible candidacy of New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg. Said Sen. Nelson, "if it's McCain vs. Clinton or McCain vs. Obama, Bloomberg won't run."
It was instructive to hear an insider's view of what's happening, but I'm still disappointed I wasn't able to confront Sen. Nelson about the lack o
f intestinal fortitude that the Democrats seem to have. Afterwards, I looked for Rep. Klein, to encourage him to support Rep. Robert Wexler's (D-Fla.) efforts to impeach Dick Cheney, but apparently the congressman left early.
And if nothing else, the food was good ...
* At this point, I had to resist the urge to leap from my seat and ask indignantly, "How exactly does the awarding of one-half of one percent of delegates to date require Sen. Edwards to 'come back' from behind?" Indeed, even when superdelegates are included, Sen. Clinton has less than 5% of the delegates needed to win the nomination, with Sen. Obama having roughly half that.
** I note that this accounts for only 48 states; Sen. Nelson did not explain what two states (Alaska and Hawaii?) were left out or how they would be included.
Labels: 2008, Barack Obama, Bill Nelson, Democratic Professionals Council, Democrats, Florida, Hillary Clinton, personal, primary, Ron Klein