Hurricane forecaster Dr. William Gray: still crazy after all these years

With hurricane season heating up and all of us in America's Wang™ (and Taint™) keeping a wary eye on the tropics, it's fun to revisit the batshit crazy rantings of hurricane wild guesser forecaster Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University (where they almost never get hurricanes).

As I've chronicled here before, Dr. Gray, a notorious wingnut, has been spending a good deal of time denying the existence of global climate change. His failure to provide any scientific justification for his position -- a curious omission by him, being a scientist and all -- rightfully has made him a laughingstock in his field, as have some of his guesstimates regarding tropical activity each year. (Of course, he "revises" his forecast several times during the season, as evidence indicates just how inaccurate he's going to be.) But the increasing lack of respect he gets doesn't deter him from ranting about how Al Gore is fat:

I[, Sun-Sentinel senior editorial writer Gary Stein, have] made fun of [Gray] in print for years. I got paid to make fun of him.

But I recently found out two things about Gray after having a phone conversation with him. First, he knows people make fun of his predictions, and it doesn't drive him nuts.

Second, he's a very cool guy.

[...]

In recent years, Gray has been talking about the hysteria over global warming.

"People say global warming is making hurricanes worse, but there is no evidence of that," said Gray, who estimates he's flown into about 20 hurricanes with research planes over the years.

"Sure, there is some global warming. But it's not due to CO2. It's due to ocean circulation changes. [Global warming] is a hoax, and we're going to put restrictions on CO2 and change lifestyles. We can't alter the weather."

President Obama would say differently, Dr. Gray.

"Then our president is wrong," Gray said. "I've been doing this 56 years. How does [Obama] and Al Gore know so much more than me?"

Now is that a cool guy or what?

No, Gary, that's not a cool guy. That's a poor excuse for a scientist, whose delusions put him somewhere between "curmudgeon" and "raving lunatic."

Maybe President Obama and Al Gore know more because they rely on competent scientists who have proven over and over again that global climate change is real? Maybe calling global climate change a "hoax" suggests that the speaker has more than just science in mind -- something like a right-wing political agenda, perhaps? After all, Holocaust deniers call that a "hoax," too, as though these events actively are being imagined through some kind of massive conspiracy to fool us into believing that they actually happened. And maybe -- just maybe -- there's a certain meteorological scientist in Colorado who has exceeded his useful shelf life in academia.

That's not cool. That's sad.

Jefferson-Jackson Dinner 2009: liveblogging, page 2

Next up is Rep. Suzanne Kosmas: "I'm running for reelection and I intend to keep this seat Democrat for years to come." How about "Democratic," Congresswoman? Too much Fox News?

Rep. Kosmas: honored to serve on the committee that produced the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (the stimulus), which will cut taxes for 95% of Americans. We also provided $250 to each senior citizen and disabled veteran in America. We are working on ways to cut taxes and increase jobs. (Crowd still pretty disengaged. It seems pretty rude to me ...)

Now my former congressman, Ron Klein. (They seem to be asking constituents of each member of Congress to do the introductions. Interesting.) Americans are optimists, and he is confident that we will emerge from our present challenges stronger than before. One area of challenge, says Rep. Klein, is hurricanes, and especially the high cost of homeowners' insurance. "We in Congress have developed an innovative approach by spreading the cost of natural disasters across the U.S." By doing so, we can reduce the cost of insurance for those people who need the most help.

Another new member of Congress, Alan Grayson, is up next. His introducer refers to health insurance as a key issue. He starts off with a joke: "Only four months since I was sworn in as a member of Congress. I wake up every morning and think to myself, 'I can't believe I'm in Congress.' Republicans in my district wake up every morning and they too think to themselves, 'I can't believe he's in Congress.' " Heh. Rep. Grayson describes how he was a sickly child, so he truly understands the importance of affordable and available health care for all Americans. "We need health coverage that keeps people alive!" He told Republicans on the floor of the House, "You claim to be pro-life, but [thousands of children die every year of disease] ... if you're pro-life, save their lives!" Nice.

Remember hurricane season?

It's been a quiet year in America's Wang™ thus far, insofar as tropical weather is concerned. But it appears all that is about to change.

Tropical Storm Fay skipped that whole tropical depression shit and went right to storm status a few minutes ago. And the current forecast puts it right off the tip of Teh Wang™ on Monday.

So, stay tuned, fellow Wangians™ (Wangites™? Wangers™? Wangsters™?) and check the National Hurricane Center website regularly for updates.

In short, get ready for a wet and windy Wang™.

UPDATE (10:08 am 8/16/08): Hmmm. The latest update (which may have changed by the time you read this) now shows the storm becoming a hurricane. And Key West looks to be in the crosshairs, after which the storm hugs Florida's Gulf Coast. Um, if this thing gets rough in the warm Caribbean waters, it's a perfect path for widespread problems across a wide swath of the state.

In other words, I may have snarked a little too soon ...

Happy Hurricane Season, Florida!

As most Floridians know, June 1 marks the beginning of hurricane season, and indeed we already have our first tropical storm of the year, way down around Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. So, we're getting a quick start. Great.

I'm celebrating by having fun with friends today, like in real life. I know, it's hard to believe, but even this sucky blogger has a real life. Anyway, leave a comment -- say something pithy.

So, you're saying our sense of security was false?

Oh, shit.

UPDATE (2:48 pm 8/13/07): Let's let the Gulf Coast get into the "Oh, shit" mode as well:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNASSIANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

*gulp*

UPDATE (5:04 pm 8/13/07): Updated with 5:00 track, which turns it slightly north ... just enough so that if it straightens out thereafter, it'll head straight for Florida with no large landmasses to weaken it.

Or maybe it'll just curve back out to sea ...

UPDATE (1:28 pm 8/16/07): Apparently the image I linked automatically updates, so in fact you're seeing the latest track for what is now Hurricane Dean. The five-day track is notoriously imprecise, though, so we're still keeping a wary eye on it here in Teh Wang™. Meanwhile, it looks like Jamaica and the Cozumel-Cancun areas are in the line of fire.

Happy Florida New Year, indeed

You know, when I posted my somewhat snarky acknowledgment of the start of hurricane season earlier today, I didn't realize that we'd be in the midst of a storm tonight here in America's Wang™ ... but "in the midst" we most assuredly are.

Tropical Storm Barry (see below) is taking dead aim at Florida. It's probably just going to be a windy, rainy day tomorrow for most of the state (indeed, I just drove 250 miles through much of it, so I can vouch for both wind and rain), but it's certainly not much comfort to know that we have a storm -- the second named storm of 2007 already -- on the first day of the season.

Batten down the hatches, Florida. We could be in for a lo-o-o-o-o-ong summer.

Happy Florida New Year!

You've got your Chinese New Year, Jewish New Year, and the standard January 1 New Year.

Today, though, is Florida New Year: the official start of hurricane season.

The forecasts are pretty much in agreement that it's going to be an active year, which will give Drunky McStagger plenty of chances to ignore hard-hit areas again. The good news is that most forecasts last year said the same thing, but 2006 paled in comparison to the previous two years. Also good news is that Colorado State University meteorologist William Gray, who somehow maintains his reputation despite his consistently inaccurate forecasts and his increasingly deranged denials of the existence of global warming, says it's going to be a bad year, too:

Hours before the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season began, researcher William Gray released his newest forecast Thursday, still expecting 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense.

Gray, based at Colorado State University, characterized the season as active. He said there is a 74 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast.

There is a 50 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, according to the new forecast. The long-term average is 31 percent.

The chance of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas, is 49 percent. The long-term average is 30 percent.

We've already had Subtropical Storm Andrea, one of the earliest storms on record, and now as I look out my window here in The Glans™, I see a windy, damp day, due to -- you guessed it -- a "tropical disturbance."

So, it's a new year, Florida. Let's get ready to rumble.

The Pentagon takes pity on hurricane-prone areas

How nice of the military.

They're sending us extra equipment as hurricane season approaches.

The Pentagon is sending about 2,100 trucks, Humvees and other equipment to National Guard units in hurricane-prone states from Virginia to Texas.

The move will help ease an equipment shortage as hurricane season starts June 1. Many Southeastern states have only half the Humvees, trucks, generators and other equipment that would be needed in a disaster, according to state and federal officials.

Some vehicles will be permanently stationed in the Southeast, while some equipment will be borrowed from Army units, said Paul Brown, the Army National Guard deputy logistics chief, in an interview Monday with Media General News Service.

Even with the new equipment, some Guard units may have to borrow equipment from other states or lease it from the private sector if a large hurricane, widespread flooding or terrorist attack occurred, state officials said.

To fill shortages, Brown said the military will divert new and repaired vehicles to the Southeast, delaying replacements for other states. Some will be “loaners” from deployed Army units that left unarmored vehicles behind, he added, and will be returned after hurricane season at the end of November.

And why do you suppose there's such a shortage of equipment? And what might be some of the less obvious results of the equipment shortage?

The equipment shortage is magnified, said North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley, because without equipment for training, Guardsmen may not be as ready to fight wars or hurricanes.

“You can’t train personnel without equipment, so they aren’t as well prepared for an emergency,” Easley said Monday.

The Iraq war is largely to blame for the shortage, said Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., who co-chairs the Senate National Guard Caucus.

He and Easley spoke during a telephone news conference. Easley represents the National Governors Association on Guard issues.

Guard units have left thousands of vehicles and other pieces of equipment in Iraq or have lost it to war damage.

Another factor is many Guard units are trading in older equipment as part of an Army-wide modernization program.

Odd. I thought this war was only going to last a few months and cost only a few million dollars. Now that I think about it, I thought it was over four years ago and we won?! I'm so nonplussed.

The actual statistics are startling:

The Government Accountability Office reported in January that 38 states had less than 55 percent of their dual-use equipment available in November 2006.

State inventory levels, as reported by GAO, were:

Virginia—40 percent
North Carolina—50 percent
South Carolina—55 percent
Georgia—64 percent
Florida—54 percent
Alabama—56 percent
Mississippi—50 percent
Louisiana—50 percent
Texas—52 percent

Let's just hope there's not some other need for National Guard troops and equipment if (when?) we're struck by a hurricane. I mean, that's pretty far-fetched, right?

Easley said the Guard could handle a Category 3 hurricane, but a larger storm would require assistance from other states. More troubling would be other disasters.

“The bigger problem is if you have a terrorist attack or a (influenza) pandemic,” Easley said. In either case, state and local officials could be on their own for days or weeks without significant federal aid.

In Florida, the Guard has less than a third of its complement of long-haul trailers and only 36 percent of the night-vision goggles. The state also is short on Humvees, trucks and wreckers, but by smaller margins.

“We have sufficient resources to respond effectively to an emergency,” said Lt. Col. Ron Tittle, Florida Guard spokesman.

If more equipment is needed the state will ask nearby states for assistance as part of an emergency compact between all 50 states to share Guard equipment and personnel.

"On their own for days or weeks without significant federal aid." Now, why does that ring a bell with me?

So, in short, the collateral damage from Drunky McStagger's folly in Iraq continues to be felt here in the U.S. day after day.

I'm so glad we're fighting "them" there so we won't have to fight "them" here. After all, we have our hands full here as it is.

America's Wang™: leaving no natural disaster unturned

Just another springtime in Florida ... we have huge fires closing highways and choking us with smoke, the first tropical storm of the year (three weeks before the official start of hurricane season), and tornadoes. What's next, earthquakes?

Oh, yeah, we did that last year.

Global warming can only be good news for Republicans (and Florida)

Now academic studies of the weather are getting to be just like the weather itself: if you don't like it, wait a few minutes and it'll change.

According to the latest research, global warming actually is a good thing, in that the wind shear it causes means fewer and less severe hurricanes:

That conclusion would seem to temper earlier studies that insist hurricanes are becoming more intense as the atmosphere heats up. Those studies point to storms such as Katrina, Rita and Wilma, all of which reached Category 5 status during the tumultuous 2005 storm season.

The most recent study doesn't altogether disputes that. Rather, it asserts that wind shear will compete against warmer ocean temperatures, and the stronger force will determine the strength of tropical storms.

"Which one is going to be the dominant factor, the wind shear or the warm ocean, we still don't know that," Gabriel Vecchi, lead author of the paper and a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said. "They're kind of conflicting forces."

The study is to be published todaywed [sic] in the Geophysical Research Letters, a scientific journal dedicated to studying the Earth's atmosphere. It is the first analysis to find a steady increase in greenhouse gases will correlate with stronger wind shear.

So now, predictably, all the wingnuts are crowing about how global warming -- a concept they think is all a lie anyway -- is positive and helpful. Beyond the fact that they can't deny global warming and then tout its positive effects -- how's that for a leap of logic? -- they don't seem to be able to comprehend that even if this study is true, the net effect of global warming is catastrophic to our planet.

Hurricanes by their very nature happen sporadically and unpredictably. A given area may get four hurricanes in a year, as we did in Florida in 2004, or none at all. So, fewer and milder hurricanes may be "good" in the grand scheme of things, but is it worth the destruction of ecosystems and, indeed, life as we know it on Earth?

It's called a risk-benefit analysis, you right-wing idiots. You might want to try to grasp the concept.

Hurricane "expert" says Al Gore is fat

Okay, not really ... but Colorado State University scientist William Gray, noted for his annual hurricane forecasts that have become almost laughably inaccurate in recent years, used his traditional "last word" privilege at the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans (irony alert, anyone?) yesterday to rant against his colleagues for their allegedly opportunistic statements about the dangers of global warming.

"These are very prominent, talented meteorologists," Gray said. "But they've jumped in and played this game. ... I think they kind of want to see this because there's opportunity. If you can show hurricanes are getting worse with time, there's better opportunity to get grant money."

Gray didn't name the five. But he offered enough details - including where they work and when they've published their research - that he left no mystery about the targets of his criticism.

Gray also faulted the news media, saying the idea that people's actions are worsening storms such as Hurricane Katrina "makes a hell of a good story."

One of Gray's apparent targets, Georgia Tech researcher Judith Curry, responded that she and her colleagues have published their findings in leading journals such as Science and Nature. In contrast, she wrote via e-mail, "I have not seen any refereed publications written by Bill Gray on this topic during the last few years.

"Research scientists conduct their exchange of ideas in the peer reviewed literature and at professional conferences, not through the media," Curry wrote.

Another researcher, Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wrote: "I am sorry to hear that Bill is still making below-the-belt comments."

Gray's views are becoming more and more isolated as the scientific evidence for global warming mounts. Clearly, any so-called expert who compares Al Gore's "fanaticism" to that of Hitler has more than a few screws loose. And yet the media, whom he attacks for their story-making, continue to publish the piss-poor prognostications that he proffers from his lab in Fort Collins, Colo., a location that, as you all know, is notorious for hurricanes. In fact, last year he had to downgrade his prediction twice during the hurricane season, which is kind of like betting on the other team at halftime when your team is down by four touchdowns.

Whatever.

Bill, seriously, maybe it's time to retire and leave meteorology, you know, to those people who have a clue. Billy, you're doing a heck of a job. Or, rather, you did.