Seeing Florida through blue-colored glasses

St. Petersburg Times Political Editor Adam Smith, whose musings on the blog The Buzz generally capture the right tone when it comes to Florida politics, has an interesting piece posted today on the paper's website. Written as a memo to Sen. Barack Obama, the article assures the senator that, while there's much work to be done in Florida, "Democrats haven't been better positioned to pick off Florida since 2000, maybe even since 1976."

I appreciate the optimism but, at the risk of being a concern troll, I'm afraid I am not quite so sanguine about Democratic prospects in America's Wang™ this fall.

A few months ago, I posted here a brief study of Florida voter registration entitled "Is Florida getting bluer?" My answer to that question was a strong "maybe." That post is relevant here because Smith's article seems to rely so heavily on increases in Democratic voter registration in Florida, to wit:

• In the 37 Florida counties with at least 50,000 voters — more than 90 percent of the electorate — Democrats have gained ground among registered voters in 30, while Republicans lost ground in 26, latest voter registration statistics show. For the first time in many cycles, voters are registering Democratic even at a faster rate than independents.

The overall voter registration picture hasn't changed significantly, but Republicans are gaining mainly in north Florida counties that have been voting Republican for years anyway while Democrats are gaining in battleground areas.

• A few weeks ago, Democrats overtook Republicans in voter registration among Hispanics, a crucial voter group that could account for 15 percent of the Florida vote in November. Senator,[sic] a Democrat now represents Little Havana in the state House, something nobody would have imagined a few years ago.

• Look at the 22 counties where Al Gore received 45 to 55 percent of the vote in 2000. Since that virtually tied election, the Democrats' net registration advantage has grown by more than 100,000.

In a state that decided the 2000 election by 537 votes, you bet it matters that today Democrats have more registered voters in a bellwether like Pinellas County, where Republicans in 2000 had a nearly 28,000-voter advantage. Or that in the megabattleground of Miami-Dade, Democrats have had a net registration gain of nearly 59,000 since 2000.

• Out of Florida's 120 state House districts, 77 have become more Democratic in registration, which helps explain why nine House seats have shifted from Republican to Democrat since 2006, the best performance Democrats have had in decades. Likewise, Democrats picked off three congressional seats in 2006, and Democrat Alex Sink easily won a hard-fought statewide campaign for chief financial officer.

"What we're seeing is the beginnings of a major sea change," said Mark Bubriski, spokesman for the Florida Democratic Party. "When you add up all of the major factors that go into the analysis of an election, everything is going the Democratic Party's way."

As I pointed out in December, though, the growth in Democratic registration may be deceptive. Statewide voter registration has trended Democratic for years, yet in many counties where Democrats dominate, voters overwhelmingly chose Drunky McStagger over both Al Gore (2000) and John Kerry (2004). Populous, fast-growing counties like Hillsborough, Polk, and Osceola have a majority Democratic registration, yet each voted Republican in 2004.

I appreciate Adam Smith's argument that the battleground counties are seeing much higher rates of Democratic registration than they have in the past, but I remain skeptical about Sen. Obama's chances here. As we've seen in recent years, statistically speaking, one's voter registration is not a very strong predictor of one's presidential vote, at least in Florida. In addition, I'm not sure you can discount the deleterious, even tragic effect of racism, which still holds sway in much of the state. But perhaps the message and the man will overcome the obstacles. I do agree with Smith in one key respect: Sen. Obama has a lot of work to do to bring Florida into the Democratic fold in November.